Tuesday, May 5, 2009

The Championship Implications of ROG-ALC-DAV's 12-0 Loss

ROG-ALC-DAV's 12-0 loss to RAY-HRB-ROB was more than just a shutout. It was more than just an end to a bid for an undefeated season. ROG-ALC-DAV was ALC's Preseason #1, fully expected to contend for the BBA5 Championship. But after this, the worst loss in BBA history, you can put all hopes of a title for this team to rest.

Without a doubt, a loss one way or another in the BBA is a big deal. With only 6 games per team in a season, the eventual champion will either be 6-0, or 5-1. Only one team however, has ever finished a season undefeated, and they did it twice: KLO-ROG-DAN. With such a balanced league this season, it's doubtful that #1 will finish 6-0. But if they do, ROG-ALC-DAV is already out of the running then. More likely, however is a huge cluster of 5-1 teams competing for the championship, and in that event, what is the tie-breaker? Margin. And guess what? A 12-0 loss pretty much kills your margin. They now sit at 2-1 with a -2.0 Margin. ROG-ALC-DAV blew their chance at the 6-0 route to the title, as well as their 5-1 tie-breaker route.

The beneficiaries of this system, and ROG-ALC-DAV's meltdown? Their conquerers, RAY-HRB-ROB. With the 12-0 shutout, they now have a 3-0 record and a Margin of an astounding 7.3. They have the inside track to both 6-0, and the 5-1 tie-breaker. 2nd place ROG-MAT-ROB (3-0) is down 4.6 Margin points... Can RAY-HRB-ROB keep it up? The numbers support them: the last team to have a Margin that high? BBA3 Champs KLO-ROG-DAN, 6-0 with a margin of 7.3. (http://ieng9.ucsd.edu/~elowe/BBA3.htm)

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